More Financial woes

http://www.jordan-business.net/magazine/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=278&Itemid=40


أستاذ مروان

بدي اعلق على المقابلة تاعت مدير البنك المركزي، يا زلمه ما جاوب ولا على سؤال من ألأسئله الي انت سألته إياها، مع انه ربنا الله الواحد يحكي دينه، اسئلتك كانت جامده وفي الصميم، بس شو الفايده، كل الجوابات كانت لا تمت بصله لأي سؤال. ممكن يعني انك تلخص كل اجوبته بجمله واحده وهي انه كل اشي مبني على المسأله او المسائل التجريبيه وغير هيك مافي اشي تاني، وكل قارئ للعدد يفهم ألأجوبه زي مابده. اتركنا من مقدمة المقال وخلينا ندخل مباشره في موضوع ألأسئله. انت بتقول له انه خبراء ألأقتصاد اختلفو في ما بينهم على مدى تأثير ألأزمه الماليه على اقتصاد ألأردن، هو شو برد وبقولك، على المدى القريب النتائج رايحه تكون ايجابيه حتى في عجز الحكومه المالي. ثم يستطرد ويقول ان البنك المركزي يقوم بتجارب لدراسة مدى تأثير الصدمه وكأن الصدمه لم تحدث بعد او انها بصدد انتظار نتأئج ابحاث المركزي المستقبليه. ألسؤال الثاني كان حول ازمة العقار ومدى استعداد البلد لمواجهته، والجزء ألأخر من السؤال له علاقة بهروب المستثمرين من بورصة عمان. شو هو جاوب، أول شي ترك موضوع سقوط العقار بحاله ولم يتطرق له نهائيا، ومن ثم اجاب عن البورصات الأجنبيه ولم يتطرق الى سبب هروب المستثمرين من بورصة عمان او سبب انعدام الثقه عندهم في وقت يجزم بأن المشكله الرئيسيه هي خارج البلد وليس بداخله. ألسؤال الي بعده انت بتقول انه البنوك في الأردن في السنوات القليله الماضيه صارت تعطي قروض بسهوله وزي الحلاوه ويمكن كان قصدك انه كيف هادي الناس هسه بدها تسد جبل الديون الي تراكم على روسهم، هسه هو شو رد وقال لك نحنا في المركزي ما عندنا مشكلة سيوله وعندنا اجرأت مراقبه صارمه والناس اهل الثقه رايحين يضلو يقدرو يحصلو على قروض. ألسؤال الي بعده، انت بتقول انه ألأزمه الماليه وانهيار اسعار العقار سوف تضعف من حجم ألأستثمارات في ألأ ردن، شو هو برد وبقول لك طالما انه احنا هون عنا ضوابط قويه وطالما انه التضخم مسيطر عليه وطالما الوضع الداخلي كويس معناته الدنيا بخير. السؤال الي بعده، انت بتقول له انه في تباطؤ في النمو، هو شو برد عليك وبيقول، هذا امر بحاجة الى دراسه من خلال تجارب علميه تجريبيه. انت بتسئال هل ربط الدينار مع الدولار ساعد الوضع في ظل التقلبات الحاليه، هو شو رد وقال نعم، ساعد كثير كثير، طبعا استعمل كلام اخر بس هاد كان قصده . انت بتسأل عن سعر الفائده وإزا بده يتغير، هو بجاوبك بأنه السيوله النقديه وحجم التضخم يقريران في ما اذا سوف يتغير مقدار الفائده. أنت تسأل اذا كان المركزي ينوي ضخ سيوله في البنوك ألأردنيه مثل ما ضخت مركزيات العالم كله في بنوكها، هو شو رد وقال لك احنا بنتبع البنك الدولي وكمان احنا بنروح على كل المؤتمرات وألأجتمعات الماليه التي تعقد في اي مكان في العالم او اي ركن من اركان المعموره. انت بتسئل عن فشل اليبرالين الجدد ،وهو برد وبقول لك اوضاع بنوكنا بخير والحمد لله. انت بتسئل عن موضوع الفلوس التي يرسلها المغتربين ألأردنيين العاملين في الخارج، وهو يرد عليك ويقول مرة اخرى بأن هذا امر يحتاج الى دراسات علميه تجريبيه http://www.jordan-business.net/magazine/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=278&Itemid=40
هذا رد على المقابلة التي اجراها السيد مروان قردوش مع السيد اميه طوقان على هذا الرابط

تحليل حاتم للأزمه الماليه

قضية ألأزمه الماليه يا إخوان انه في مصاري كثير لرب العزه ومن كثر ما في مصاري بطلو يلاقو ظايل في ناس بدها تستقرض مصاري. يعني كل واحد فينا مش بس استقرض مصاري كفايه، راح كمان واستقرض زياده شويه فوق قدرته على السداد، حتى في ناس كثير استقرضت مبالغ مش رايحيين عمرهم يقدرو يسددوها حتى لو الله اعطاهم طولة العمر. هذا من ناحيه الناس، بس من ناحية البنوك لسه في مصاري كثير وبدنا كمان ناس تيجي تستقرض لأنه البنك ما بستفيد من المصاري اذا ظلت نايمه في الجرار. طيب من وين اجت كل هذي المصاري إلي انت نازل تحكي عنها، انا بقول لك من وين اجت، في جزء كبير منها اجا من ارتفاع سعرالبترول، وفي جزء ثاني اجا من الصين علشان الصين قاعده بتستثمر كل مصاريها بأميركا، والجزء الثالث وهو اكبر جزء جاء من المضاربات اليوميه في البورصه بس مش البورصه الطبيعيه الي كلنا بنعرفها، انا بحكي عن بورصة التوريق او المشتقات كما يسميها بعض الناس ويعتقد ان اساس ألأزمه قد بدأت في بورصة التوريق عندما استنكف الناس الذين اخذو قروض ذات فوائد عاليه وبألتالي لم يتمكنو من سداد هذه القروض وفجأه توقفو عن دفع مستحقاتهم الشهريه للبنوك وبألتالي لم يتمكن البنوك من دفع الفوائد المستحقه عليه للمستثمرين الذين اودعو مصاريهم في البنوك من اجل الحصول على فوائد شهريه لودائعهم. وفي نهاية المطاف وصل كل شيء الى طريق مسدود، الناس مابدها تدفع الدين المتراكم عليها اما طوعا اوقسرا لسه ما في حدا عارف .ليش لأنه زي ما قلت الناس مابدهاتدفع والبنك بطل يعطي قروض، يعني مثل ازمة السير ان غابت عنكم. هسه الحكومه بتحاول قدر جهدها انه تمشي السير من اول لبو جديد اما عن طريق الدخول كوسيط بين الناس وبين البنوك اوعن طريق تأميم البنوك مثل ما حصل في انجلترا موأخرا. ففي حالة ما تسيطر الحكومه على البنوك فأنه من المحتمل ان تبدأالدواليب في الدوران مرةاخرى. باختصار ازمة السير حادة للغاية ولكن في النهاية لن تؤدي الى انهيار مالي كلي وكل ما في الأمر ان الفتره الحاليه سوف تكون فترة فتور وربما برود على ألأخر حتى يتمكن الناس من ايجاد وسيلة جديده لدفعديونهم المتراكمه اما عن طريق ألأفلاس وشطب الديون شطب كامل واما عن طريق اعادةبرمجةالقروض بفوائد قليله ومضمونه من قبل الحكومه. من المتوقع ان تستمر هذه ألأزمه لمدة سنه على ألأقل.

Nits & Lice

I know that its gross and disgusting and it sends chills down your spine when you hear about it, but hey according to Alghad Jordanian daily http://www.alghad.jo/?news=356152 more than half of our school children are infested with this pesky insect that invades the person's head and settles in there very comfortably until it gets properly treated with appropriate shampoo, combing, and eradication of the active nits that have great tendency of mutating time and again.

I'm not bringing up this topic to highlight the prevalence and pervasiveness of the problem, it is broad enough to speak for itself.

I'm writing to inform anybody who might be interested that there is a business opportunity that can be extracted out of this miserable situation, it may not be the most glamorous business opportunity but nonetheless it is worth exploring in more depth.

The ministry of education spends large sums of money every year on shampoo that they give to the schools for free, the schools in turn probably gives to the students to treat their heads. It is unknown whether the students use this medicated shampoo or they use other primitive archaic methods such as pouring kerosene on the head or something like that.

Irrespective of method they have been using it appears to be not working and more kids are getting more lice in their heads, more than half of all of the kids combined.

So for those of you that still have that die hard entrepreneurial sport, you can start lobbying the ministry of education to look at your business proposal which entails opening shops similar to the Barber shop in every Jordanian governed, the purpose of this lets call it lice eradication shop would service every school age child every year prior to entering the school grounds. In other words, the ministry of education would issue a decree, edict, or whatever you want to call it stating that no child will be admitted to the school yard until he/ she provide the principal with a certificate indicating that this person is totally and completely free of any lice. That he has been checked and either treated or found to be not needing any treatment and thus was given the certificate.

It would be something like the mandatory liability car insurance which dictates that no one will be granted permission to drive unless they can furnish a proof that they have at the very minimum a liability insurance that will protect the driver in the event of an accident.

I don't know how or why did I come up with this crazy idea, I'm not sure if my motive was to create another business idea for someone or to help those poor children to get their heads cleaned up from the nits and lice that not only bothers them to passes on the problem to other students that come in close contact with them.

Nits and Lice are no laughing matters, they aren't a disgraceful matter either, just because someone gets it doesn't mean that they aren't clean, there is a great deal of possibility that they got it from someone else and not from their own lack of good hygiene practice.

So there you have it go jump at it, I want to see a lice eradication shop approved by the ministry of education and funded by the same ministry opening in Amman, Salt, Irbid, Maan, Tafilah, Zarqa, Karak, Balqa, and somewhere in between.

The shops don't have to cater to school age children only even though they seem to be the ones that are in need of it the most, it can cater to adult and seniors and any age group that will need this type of service.

Messenger of Allah Unites us

I don’t think that the demands made by Kurt Westergaard, the Danish cartoonist, in this report appearing in the Jordan Times today, August 22, 08. http://www.jordantimes.com/?news=10225; were very highly outrageous ones.

The prisoners at Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba where they have been held since their capture made similar demands and were accommodated. They demanded that the food that they eat doesn’t contain any type of pork in it; they asked for and received a copy of the holy book Quran. They were given pieces of rug to prey on it as well as bathrooms to perform their ablution prior to the prayers.

The part that I don’t understand is whether Mr. Westergaard was sincere in asking for these things or whether he was trying to show case the fact that pork is prohibited in the Muslim world as well as the prisoners are prohibited from reading books, magazines, or any other literature.

Given the fact that he is a septuagenarian man, I would have to take his word for it and not accuse him of trying do more mocking about the pork, the prison cell, conditions and the reading material.

I honestly would like to see Mr. Westegaard come to Jordan and confront his accusers in an open court, I’m sure that the Jordanian government is more than capable of providing the necessary arrangement for his protection as well as for his accommodation during his stay in Jordan.

His is a real classic case about the clash between freedoms of speech, freedom of expression, versus theological interpretation of what is blasphemous and what is sanctimonious. I mean why not, let justice take its course, the man says that he has nothing against Islam, he doesn’t feel that he has done anything wrong, he isn’t about to apologize for doing something that he feels falls under his freedom of expression rights.

His accusers believe that he slandered the prophet of Islam by depicting him in very provocative manners. If he can prove his innocence then he will be off the hook, and if he get convicted he will understand that he wasn’t within his rights and he may have stepped off the line. All in all it would be very interesting to watch and see justice take precedent over personal animus.

Danish cartoonist story revisited

Last month I argued on this blog http://thearabobserver.blogspot.com/2008/07/lets-sue-people-around-world-hurraaay.html that it was okay to sue the Danish cartoonist in the Jordanian courts irrespective of the out come of the law suit. Less than one month after wards we learn in this report http://www.arabianbusiness.com/527794-cartoonist-ready-for-blasphemy-trial-in-jordan that the cartoonist is ready, willing, and able to stand trial. The only thing that is standing between then and now is that he hadn't been officially notified through the proper channels about the law suit, nor did he receive a subpoena summoning him to appear before a judge. He isn't sorry and he doesn't believe that he did anything wrong, he firmly believes in his freedom to express himself in the way he sees fit and willing to defend that even under unusually difficult circumstances. It would very interesting to see how this highly publicized story continue to develop. I wonder if he would indeed come to Jordan to confront his accusers. Can you imagine the type of security that would have to be put in place by the Jordanian authority to protect the life of this cartoonist during the length of his trial. I wonder also given all of the publicity that this story has been a given, a fair trial can be conducted with all of the hype taking place outside the court building. I finally wonder if there was not enough evidence to convict him, would he in deed be acquitted of the charges against him, and by contrast if he were to get convicted whether he would serve time in the Jordanian jails or he would be sent back to his country to serve jail time over there. I know that I'm probably already over reacting and there is a big possibility a trial may never take place and he may never set a foot on the Jordanian soil. All I'm doing at this point is trying to think of all of the possibilities that might happen. This is a very unique case and I'm not sure if the Jordanian judicial system has ever been faced with such a complicated international situation that extends not only beyond the Jordanian borders and the regional borders but rather all the way to western Europe. I'm going to keep a close watch on this story and should there be any new developments I'll update it on my blog accordingly.

Hate Mail

Following is a hate mail I received today:

Anonymous has left a comment : I hate all Arabs. They are evil. They have no reason to live in America, in fact, they have no right to live at all! They are not God's children, they're the Devil's children. They're the ones who caused the 9/11 tragedy. You have to be a brainless idiot to believe Arabs are not evil. They should be killed, murdered, treated to slavery, beheaded, burned, and shot. I say down with them bearded animals and up with us Intelligent Americans!

Citizen Journalism and me.

I recently learned that the comments that I leave on other people's blogs, stories published in the main stream media, or any comment I leave on any Internet website is classified as a form of citizen Journalism.

When I learned that I said to myself holy cow I'm and have been a citizen journalist all along and I don't even know about it.

And this comes at a time when I started thinking seriously about being part of citizen journalism group like Amman Net, 7iber, or any other alternative journalistic Jordanian group that I find suitable to my way of thinking.

In this case I feel that I'm absolved of this responsibility and don't have to join any group and all I need to do is continue doing what I have always been doing and that is leaving comments here and there and every where on the Internet and on main stream printed press.

You know the number of comments that I authored over the past twelve years or so, I can't even begin to estimate it, it could be any where from ten to fifteen thousand.

Grant you, some are as short as twenty five to thirty words but some is longer than one thousand words.

I have no way of knowing how many people read those comments or what on earth do they get out of it if anything, but I did receive responses from very interesting people over the years including major US publications, mind you, not offering me an opportunity to become a citizen journalist in their outfits or anything like that.

They were merely supportive, passive, or strongly opposed to the view point that I have presented at the time.

In a way I can appreciate their concerns because those who have known me for a long period of time probably realized that over the years or as I aged I started moving back from the center of the left to the center of the right.

I'm not entirely sure what caused that shift but most likely it is the kind of people that I associate myself with them and the type of material that I read have something to do with it.

I'm not sorry about that and I see myself as someone that is evolving all the time in a dynamic way. I can't under any circumstances adhere to one school of thought, an ideology of some kind of a dogma.

I consider myself as someone that calls the shots as he sees it, yes, I do exercise self sensorship, but that is only in reference to staying out of scandalous things, slanderous issues, and so on, but I don't feel that I exercise self sensor-ship regarding my fundamental rights to freedom of speech or freedom of expression.

So yeah I'm writing today to welcome myself into the world of citizen journalism and to congratulate myself on the ten to fifteen thousand comments that I have written.

Who knows may be some how some where somebody may have read one or more of these comments and benefited out of it.

I really don't know that and don't even care to know since when I do comment on something I do it because this is what I love to do, I enjoy it tremendously and appreciate having the opportunity to express my view unhindered, unfettered, in its entirety, without an editor scissors slashing some of it out.

The burden is entirely my own, and the consequences are my own as well. Whether I make somebody happy, I make a fool out of myself, or write something reprehensible, it is all my choice and it is all part of this citizen journalism that I have chosen to be part of it at the dawn of this twenty first century.

So from here in on if I'm going to be biased it will be biases toward citizen Journalism, the information is totally unfiltered, unslanted, free of partisanship.