Notwithstanding the extra ordinary zeal, Jordan isn't Palestine and Palestine isn't Jordan. The Isalmists had their opportunity to capture the legislative branch during the 1989 election, long before the current election law was put in place, all they were able to accomplish was a meager 12% of the vote, even if we double that number to fit the current set of circumstances it would give the Islamists a 24% of the vote, well short of what they received in Palestine.
Jordan is an independent and sovereign state, it has a constitution and well established governmental institutions, Palestine on the contrary is still under occupation and doesn't enjoy and of the privileges that exist in Jordan.
The leadership in Jordan differs from that in Palestine, the Hashemites are widely popular and they enjoy the traditional tribal support, the perks that the people receive from the government outweigh the risk of doing away with it.
The Islamists of Jordan are an integral part of the regime and not a separate renegade mavericks seeking to change the regime, in Palestine Hamas was out to defeat Fateh because it wants to tip the balance in its favor.
While nepotism and corruption are present in Jordan it isn't as rampant the way it was festering in Palestine. The people of Palestine do want change, the people of Jordan including Islamists don't want any change, they are very comfortable with the status quo.
They do want reform which is half of the equation but they don't want the change which is the other half of the equation. Unlike the people of Palestine the people in Jordan don't feel the tremendous occupation pressure.
Jordanian citizens are free to do just about anything they want without the fear of being prosecuted and persecuted for it. They come and go as they please, they import and export, they open up business and travel abroad, and build properties, and so on and so forth. These taken for granted conditions don't exist in Palestine, one can't go from village to the next village without encountering all kinds of obstacles.
Even if free, fair, and transparent elections were to be held today in Jordan, the Islamists aren't going to score big the way the did in Palestine, the two sets of circumstances are diametrically opposite from one another.
It is naive to think that just because Hamas won in Palestine it is going to win in Jordan, there is no evidence to support this claim none whatsoever.
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3 comments:
I agree Hatem, I don't see the Islamists gaining substantial grounds in Jordan.
Your numbers might be off about the 1989 election results, I believe the muslim brotherhood scored 17 of the then 80 parliament seats, which would give them 21%. Also, another thing to keep in mind is that political parties were not legalized until 1992, so although the electoral system provided for the ability to vote for a list of candidates, the candidates could not have a political party affiliation.
I think, after some checking, my numbers were too, from a couple of sources I've found that Islamists won 33 seats or 42% in the 1989 elections.
I agree with you.
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